H2 2024

U.S. Commercial Real Estate 
Investing Outlook

Navigating a Slow Market

Over two years have passed since the Federal Reserve initiated its first interest rate hike, and it has been more than a year since rates have remained unchanged, at their highest level in 23 years.1 Now, the market is anticipating the advent of rate cuts, but the expectation is of fewer in number and slower in pace than widely believed at the start of the year.2 Although the timing and impact of such rate cuts remain unpredictable, this shift toward expecting rate cuts and the end of rate hikes has partially helped alleviate a nearly two-year-long market downturn.

Figure 1: Interest Rates Over the Last Ten Years (U.S Federal Funds Effective Rate)
Figure 1-Outlook H2


From our vantage point, the commercial real estate (“CRE”) market continues normalizing and adjusting to its new reality. It’s not as if interest rates are excessively high from a multi-decade perspective; they’re just excessively high relative to twenty-four months ago1 - adaptation to such a rapid rate of change typically takes time.

The word “scarcity” comes to mind when we consider today’s deal flow - transaction volume is down 60% since the initial rate hike in March 2022.3 However, the relative trickle of deals we do see is becoming more interesting to us, which leads us to believe we are in the middle of a market trough. Despite a marginally improved outlook for interest rates, we expect transaction volume to remain subdued in the short term. Consequently, we anticipate that deal volume on the CrowdStreet Marketplace will also remain relatively low in H2 2024 compared to our historical volume.

There is a scarcity of deals in the commercial real estate market. For those deals that launch on our CrowdStreet Marketplace, a discounted basis on acquisitions and reasonable financing for development deals will be a commonly targeted theme for us.
Figure 2: “Prices Trending Upward,” Green Street Commercial Property Price Index
Figure_2
Source: Commercial Property Price Index, Green Street, July 2024.

 

Overall, we are looking for opportunities to acquire properties adequately discounted from their peak values, preferably in locations where long-term market fundamentals remain intact, with an outlook that supports positive net absorption and strong population growth over the next five years, especially those with recovering urban centers. Some of these markets may be oversupplied in the short term. That may be acceptable, provided the pricing reflects the current environment. As for ground-up development, while not impossible, we observe it’s harder to scout these projects today due to a combination of generally expensive debt, scarcity of lenders willing to lend, expanding cap rate environment, and tepid overall rent growth.4

To keep you updated, we will closely monitor interest rates, inflation, and other economic indicators as economic trends evolve. Our H2 2024 report incorporates our industry knowledge and thorough research to construct our outlook and strategies across various CRE asset classes.

Figure 3: RCA Transaction Volume Summary by CRE Asset Type
Figure 14-1
Source: Source: US Big Picture, MSCI Real Capital Analytics, May 2024.

 

 
  1. Federal Funds Effective Rate, FRED, July 2024.
  2. What To Expect From The Fed On Interest Rates For The Rest Of 2024,” Forbes, June 2024.
  3. US Big Picture, MSCI Real Capital Analytics, May 2024.
  4. Checking In With The Experts: CRE Deal-Making Slows As Debt Becomes More Scarce,” November 2024.

Disclaimer: Investing in commercial real estate entails substantive risk. You should not invest unless you can sustain the risk of loss of capital, including the risk of total loss of capital. All investors should consider their individual factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. An investment in a private placement is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk, including the risk of loss of the entire investment. Private placements are illiquid investments and are intended for investors who do not need a liquid investment.
CrowdStreet, Inc. (“CrowdStreet”) offers investment opportunities and financial services on its website. Advisory services are offered through CrowdStreet Advisors, LLC (“CrowdStreet Advisors”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of CrowdStreet and a federally registered investment adviser. CrowdStreet Advisors provides investment advisory services exclusively to privately managed accounts and private funds and does not otherwise provide investment advisory services to the CrowdStreet Marketplace or its users.

This article was written by an employee of CrowdStreet Advisors and the contents of this publication are for informational purposes only. Neither this publication nor the financial professionals who authored it are rendering financial, legal, tax or other professional advice or opinions on specific facts or matters, nor does the distribution of this publication to any person constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product issued by CrowdStreet Advisors, its affiliates, or otherwise. The views and statements expressed are based upon the opinions of CrowdStreet Advisors. All information is from sources believed to be reliable. This article is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of money you invest, and past performance does not guarantee future performance or success. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. CrowdStreet Advisors assumes no liability in connection with the use of this publication.

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